PROPEDIA TENNIS
Basel · Vienna · Guangzhou Open · Tokyo
33 singles matches · 4 tournaments
Tour
Level
Venue
Event
BIGGEST MISMATCH
Elena Rybakina 90%
Elena Rybakina vs Yulia Putintseva · Tokyo · Pan Pacific Open
COIN FLIP OF THE DAY
Fernandez 52% / 48%
vs Elise Mertens · Tokyo · Pan Pacific Open — the market will price this tighter than the Elo gap
TOTAL GAMES OVER WATCH
O22.5 · 62%
Flavio Cobolli vs Matteo Berrettini — sim median 25 games, tiebreak 47%
MODEL ML RECORD
15-7
68% on 22 graded model ML picks · 60%+ picks: 12-4 · tracked since Oct 27
TODAYWednesday, October 28, 202619 matches
YannickHanfmann #59 · Elo 1775No model
INDOOR HARDRound 107:30 ET · Basel
Jan-LennardStruff #— · Elo —No model
MATCH SIMNo sim — a player has no current Elo rating (see notes)
RemyBertola #236 · Elo 150212% · fair +730
INDOOR HARDRound 109:00 ET · Basel
DenisShapovalov #52 · Elo 181688% · fair -730
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Shapovalov 88% · Median 22 games · O22.5 42% · TB 36%
NunoBorges #53 · Elo 181434% · fair +197
INDOOR HARDRound 209:00 ET · Basel
CasperRuud #25 · Elo 195266% · fair -197
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Ruud 66% · Median 25 games · O22.5 60% · TB 46%
NovakDjokovic #12 · Elo 206380% · fair -397
INDOOR HARDRound 110:30 ET · Basel
UgoHumbert #38 · Elo 180820% · fair +397
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Djokovic 80% · Median 23 games · O22.5 52% · TB 41%
TaylorFritz #13 · Elo 193576% · fair -318
INDOOR HARDRound 113:00 ET · Basel
RinkyHijikata #85 · Elo 172124% · fair +318
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Fritz 76% · Median 23 games · O22.5 54% · TB 42%
HubertHurkacz #28 · Elo 1898No model
INDOOR HARDRound 214:30 ET · Basel
HolgerRune #— · Elo —No model
MATCH SIMNo sim — a player has no current Elo rating (see notes)
TallonGriekspoor #50 · Elo 181439% · fair +156
INDOOR HARDRound 108:30 ET · Vienna
BrandonNakashima #17 · Elo 191061% · fair -156
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Nakashima 61% · Median 25 games · O22.5 61% · TB 47%
DM
DanielMerida #— · Elo —No model
INDOOR HARDRound 108:30 ET · Vienna
DaniilMedvedev #5 · Elo 1995No model
MATCH SIMNo sim — a player has no current Elo rating (see notes)
LorenzoMusetti #26 · Elo 189841% · fair +141
INDOOR HARDRound 110:00 ET · Vienna
FrancesTiafoe #9 · Elo 194859% · fair -141
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Tiafoe 59% · Median 25 games · O22.5 61% · TB 47%
JakubMensik #16 · Elo 190175% · fair -302
INDOOR HARDRound 211:30 ET · Vienna
AdrianMannarino #73 · Elo 170325% · fair +302
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Mensik 75% · Median 23 games · O22.5 55% · TB 44%
JurijRodionov #137 · Elo 163439% · fair +155
INDOOR HARDRound 112:30 ET · Vienna
NikolozBasilashvili #95 · Elo 170061% · fair -155
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Basilashvili 61% · Median 25 games · O22.5 60% · TB 47%
LearnerTien #18 · Elo 191640% · fair +150
INDOOR HARDRound 215:00 ET · Vienna
Alexde Minaur #10 · Elo 198260% · fair -150
MATCH SIMSim (10k): de Minaur 60% · Median 25 games · O22.5 61% · TB 47%
KaterinaSiniakova #49 · Elo 186867% · fair -202
OUTDOOR HARDRound 101:00 ET · Guangzhou Open
LanlanaTararudee #57 · Elo 173633% · fair +202
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Siniakova 67% · Median 23 games · O22.5 53% · TB 30%
PaulaBadosa #61 · Elo 181057% · fair -134
OUTDOOR HARDRound 202:30 ET · Guangzhou Open
SinjaKraus #77 · Elo 176243% · fair +134
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Badosa 57% · Median 24 games · O22.5 55% · TB 32%
HarrietDart #115 · Elo 164741% · fair +145
OUTDOOR HARDRound 204:00 ET · Guangzhou Open
JaniceTjen #47 · Elo 171859% · fair -145
JT
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Tjen 59% · Median 24 games · O22.5 55% · TB 31%
SH
ShiHan #— · Elo —No model
OUTDOOR HARDRound 207:00 ET · Guangzhou Open
DayanaYastremska #97 · Elo 1751No model
MATCH SIMNo sim — a player has no current Elo rating (see notes)
AliaksandraSasnovich #112 · Elo 174122% · fair +361
OUTDOOR HARDRound 201:30 ET · Tokyo
DianaShnaider #13 · Elo 197278% · fair -361
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Shnaider 78% · Median 22 games · O22.5 48% · TB 28%
AlexandraEala #19 · Elo 191971% · fair -240
OUTDOOR HARDRound 204:00 ET · Tokyo
TaliaGibson #38 · Elo 172729% · fair +240
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Eala 71% · Median 23 games · O22.5 52% · TB 30%
CristinaBucsa #42 · Elo 169948% · fair +110
OUTDOOR HARDFINAL1-6 6-2 4-6
MayaJoint #94 · Elo 171552% · fair -110
RESULTJoint won 1-6 6-2 4-6 · Model ✓ (52%) · Sim median 24 games vs 25 actual
TOMORROWThursday, October 29, 202614 matches
VV
ValentinVacherot #31 · Elo 185830% · fair +231
INDOOR HARDRound 2TBD ET · Basel
RafaelJodar #11 · Elo 201970% · fair -231
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Jodar 70% · Median 24 games · O22.5 57% · TB 45%
DanielAltmaier #60 · Elo 172119% · fair +426
INDOOR HARDRound 2TBD ET · Basel
JiriLehecka #21 · Elo 195681% · fair -426
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Lehecka 81% · Median 23 games · O22.5 50% · TB 40%
BenShelton #4 · Elo 197886% · fair -612
INDOOR HARDRound 2TBD ET · Basel
JeromeKym #222 · Elo 165714% · fair +612
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Shelton 86% · Median 22 games · O22.5 46% · TB 38%
AlexMichelsen #34 · Elo 186434% · fair +199
INDOOR HARDRound 2TBD ET · Basel
ArthurFils #8 · Elo 200666% · fair -199
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Fils 66% · Median 25 games · O22.5 58% · TB 46%
TommyPaul #14 · Elo 194773% · fair -267
INDOOR HARDRound 2TBD ET · Vienna
LucianoDarderi #23 · Elo 180327% · fair +267
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Paul 73% · Median 23 games · O22.5 56% · TB 44%
FlavioCobolli #6 · Elo 187957% · fair -132
INDOOR HARDRound 2TBD ET · Vienna
MatteoBerrettini #48 · Elo 180943% · fair +132
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Cobolli 57% · Median 25 games · O22.5 62% · TB 47%
JT
JilTeichmann #168 · Elo 168739% · fair +159
OUTDOOR HARDRound 2TBD ET · Guangzhou Open
ZeynepSonmez #64 · Elo 176861% · fair -159
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Sonmez 61% · Median 24 games · O22.5 55% · TB 32%
LilliTagger #53 · Elo 177657% · fair -134
OUTDOOR HARDRound 2TBD ET · Guangzhou Open
MagdaLinette #71 · Elo 175043% · fair +134
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Tagger 57% · Median 24 games · O22.5 56% · TB 32%
MariaTimofeeva #72 · Elo 1792No model
OUTDOOR HARDRound 2TBD ET · Guangzhou Open
XinranSun #— · Elo —No model
XS
MATCH SIMNo sim — a player has no current Elo rating (see notes)
AB
AnnaBondar #76 · Elo 171647% · fair +113
OUTDOOR HARDRound 2TBD ET · Guangzhou Open
KaitlinQuevedo #86 · Elo 173553% · fair -113
KQ
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Quevedo 53% · Median 24 games · O22.5 56% · TB 32%
NaomiOsaka #18 · Elo 202084% · fair -537
OUTDOOR HARDRound 2TBD ET · Tokyo
MiaPohankova #144 · Elo 169716% · fair +537
MP
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Osaka 84% · Median 21 games · O22.5 42% · TB 25%
ElenaRybakina #1 · Elo 215790% · fair -857
OUTDOOR HARDRound 2TBD ET · Tokyo
YuliaPutintseva #67 · Elo 180010% · fair +857
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Rybakina 90% · Median 20 games · O22.5 37% · TB 23%
LeylahFernandez #23 · Elo 189552% · fair -106
OUTDOOR HARDRound 2TBD ET · Tokyo
EliseMertens #14 · Elo 191048% · fair +106
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Fernandez 52% · Median 24 games · O22.5 55% · TB 31%
AP
AlyciaParks #65 · Elo 161632% · fair +216
OUTDOOR HARDRound 2TBD ET · Tokyo
KimberlyBirrell #41 · Elo 174868% · fair -216
KB
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Birrell 68% · Median 23 games · O22.5 52% · TB 30%

How the model works — formula ships with the board, like every Propedia section

Win % = Elo expectancy on a blended rating gap: gap = 0.7 × (surface Elo gap — the surface being played) + 0.3 × (overall Elo gap), P = 1 / (1 + 10^(−gap/400)). Elo ratings are Jeff Sackmann's published Tennis Abstract ratings (overall + Hard/Clay/Grass splits, updated weekly). The sim then converts that win % into a serve-point edge around the tour serve baseline (ATP 64.0% / WTA 56.5% of service points won), calibrates it through the exact point→game→set chain, and runs 10,000 Monte Carlo matches for total games, tiebreak and set-score distributions. Sim win % tracks the Elo win % within ~1 pt across the day's modelled matches — that's the calibration check.
Surface & form design: every stat splits by surface (Hard / Clay / Grass Elo shown in the Tape); recent form is computed on-surface and recency-weighted in the production build — a clay run does not inflate a grass number.
Known gaps, shown not hidden: A player with no current Tennis Abstract Elo carries no model % on their card. Charting stats (Match Charting Project, last 52 weeks) only exist for players with 5+ charted matches. Book lines are not in any free feed we hold — model % + fair odds only, exactly how UFC launched.
SURFACE WATCH
Off their best surface today — Elo drop in red
Casper Ruud · Basel−76
Best: Clay 1951  ·  Today: Hard 1875
Luciano Darderi · Vienna−120
Best: Clay 1823  ·  Today: Hard 1704
Anna Bondar · Guangzhou Open−82
Best: Clay 1729  ·  Today: Hard 1647